Moscow’s nuclear threats and the care taken by both NATO and Russia to avoid direct conflict since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine mean that nuclear weapons, nuclear coercion and nuclear deterrence still matter in a European security order again shaped by mutual antagonism. Washington’s shifting posture, though it does not yet appear to have changed Moscow’s nuclear calculations, adds a dangerous degree of uncertainty, particularly for NATO allies in Europe. In an atmosphere of intense distrust, which heightens the danger of misinterpretation, NATO members and Russia can help mitigate risks by engaging at government, expert and other levels to more effectively communicate messages and to better understand one another’s postures. While ambiguity will also play a role in deterrence, and hostility makes engagement difficult, communication can help avoid misunderstandings. In time, such contacts may also allow for limitations on capabilities, if broader dialogue becomes possible. https://www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/europe/europe-russia-ukraine-united-states/273-changing-role-nuclear-weapons-europe