#STRATDELA

Germany’s next steps towards building up an arsenal of long-range precision weapons are drawing attention from Russia. First things first, such an arsenal already exists. The Luftwaffe is equipped with the advanced ‘Taurus’ long-range cruise missile (jointly developed with Sweden). The prospects for expanding this arsenal, including on land and at sea, depend on a number of external factors. Germany is attempting to collaborate with the UK, to purchase Tomahawks from the US, whilst the pan-European ELSA project, which envisages a whole ‘bouquet’ of different solutions, remains on the agenda. Tests carried out from a German frigate of the Israeli ‘LORA’ ballistic missile system - a very capable missile as well - also point to a desire to diversify potential sources of missile technology and missile systems as much as possible. At the same time, there are bottlenecks in terms of production capacity, in terms of political decision-making regarding the procurement of particular systems, and in terms of the willingness to sell missile systems, as there is currently little appetite in the US for such cooperation. Still, the more long-range weapons an adversary possesses, and the more sophisticated and diverse they are, the harder the task of protecting targets on Russian territory becomes - both in terms of a layered air and missile defence system and, quite simply, in terms of the territory that must be regarded at risk. For Russia, there are four types of countermeasures here: - firstly, the further development of our layered air and space defence system; - secondly, the build-up of our own long-range weapon capabilities; - thirdly, enhancing the protection of critical civilian and military infrastructure facilities, duplicating them and even possibly relocating them further East; - and fourthly, a restart of European arms control with the aim, at the very least, of increasing the transparency and manageability of the current arms race, and, at the very most, of limiting its scale. As far as one can tell, work is already underway in all these areas. And not just because of the German situation, of course.