Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸

🇺🇸👌⚡️- The Indiana GOP has fired an organizer of 10 years, Paul Joseph Tinkle, for making an "ok" hand gesture during a group photo. Paul was previously an English teacher in Japan as part of a US Embassy program and use of the hand symbol was common. The Indiana GOP did not allow Paul to defend himself in person instead deciding to fire him after a single phone call where he could only offer an explanation. To this day the ADL still considers the gesture a "hate symbol" after a deliberate prank by internet racists to get it declared so.

🇮🇷🇴🇲⚡️ — UKMTO says the master of an oil tanker 4 nautical miles east of Oman reported being struck by a projectile on the port side while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. The crew is safe, and no environmental impact has been reported.

🇺🇸⚡️- Another innocent person, who happens to share the name of an accused member of the Cornell 7, has been doxed and their family harassed by internet vigilantes.

🇺🇸🗽⚡️- Mayor Mamdani has now come out in favor of Governor Hochul's decision to put AG James in charge of prosecuting the Cornell 7. Mamdani and Hochul have a tense relationship where Mamdani usually takes the lead on issues and pressures her via the base, this is a notable exception where he is reacting to her moves.

🇰🇵⚡- North Korea tested a ballistic missile moments ago. The projectile landed in open waters.

🇾🇪⚡- PLC forces have launched successful localized counter attacks in western Jabal Habashi, northwest Ta'izz direction, southern Yemen.

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡- Explosions heard in Aseer, Najran, and Jizan, southwest Saudi Arabia. Ongoing Ansarullah missile and drone attack.

🇬🇧🇮🇷⚡️- BREAKING: Two Iranians have been arrested by British authorities on charges of plotting a terrorist attack against Jewish communities in Manchester. It is alleged that the suspects were in contact with a “third party,” which may be Iran.

🇪🇹⚡- The Tigray Defense Forces have withdrawn from the entire southwestern Tigray region, retreating to the Samre highlands and Mekele, the regional capital. Map key: - Red: Ethiopian Armed Forces, - Green: Tigray Defense Forces. - Unmarked: Withdrawn territory / grey-zone.

🇺🇸🇲🇽⚡️- The US is deploying roughly 500 additional troops to the Rio Grande Valley after Coast Guard personnel exchanged fire with cartel members shooting from the Mexican side of the border. The Coast Guard says its personnel returned fire during the September 26 incident near Garceño, Texas. The troops are now being inserted by Chinook helicopters onto islands along the Rio Grande as federal forces reinforce the area. No US personnel were injured and no Coast Guard assets were damaged.

🇺🇸🌎⚡️- Latin America has become heavily dependent on American diesel, with Ecuador, Chile, Mexico and Peru now receiving enough US fuel to account for more than half of their diesel consumption. Goldman Sachs says the region would be the world's most exposed to any restriction on US diesel exports. The numbers also highlight the enormous strategic role American Gulf Coast refining now plays in the Western Hemisphere's energy security.

🇺🇸🇹🇼🇨🇳⚡️- Taiwan has received the first two of 66 new F-16V Block 70 fighters ordered from the United States, marking the beginning of deliveries from the $8 billion program after years of delays. The aircraft arrived at Chihhang Air Base after transiting through Hawaii and Guam, with additional fighters expected before the end of the year. Once complete, the order will push Taiwan's F-16 fleet above 200 aircraft and significantly expand its ability to contest Chinese airpower around the island.

🇮🇹🇪🇹🇪🇷⚡- Italy has issued a security warning advising its citizens against travelling to Eritrea and urging heightened caution.

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡- "Saudi Arabia is preparing a new offensive against the Ansarullah, with the objective of retaking the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb and securing Red Sea shipping. The offensive will include more than 100,000 mobilized PLC troops with Saudi air support. US will provide intelligence support. The offensive could either be a limited coastal assault or a large-scale multi-front campaign," - Reuters.

🇺🇸🇧🇷⚡️- "Consular Services in the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Brazil will be suspended starting today, October 2 due to security concerns. U.S. citizens seeking emergency assistance during this time should not come to the Embassy, the Consulates, or other U.S. diplomatic facilities." - U.S. Embassy in Brazil on X.

🇺🇸🇫🇷⚡️- Following the G7 meeting led by French president Emmanuel Macron, the G7 have agreed to release "up to 100 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves within the next four months". U.S president Donald Trump precised there would be no limitations or bans on oil exports within the G7.

🇮🇷🇴🇲⚡- Iranian projectiles struck a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a small fire and a loss of power onboard, UKMTO reports.

🇮🇱 - Israeli Channel 13's latest prediction polls for the October 27th elections: Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 23 Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 21 Bichad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 11 Democrats (Yair Golan) - 11 Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 9 Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 9 Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 8 Yahadut HaTorah (Moshe Gafni) - 8 Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 7 Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 7 Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 5 Amach Yisrael (Ofer Winter) - 5 61 required for a majority. • Yashar, Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu are widely believed to join a bloc (43). • Likud and Tkuma are very likely to run together again (28). • Otzma Yehudit hasn't openly declared they would join the Likud-bloc again, but are expected to do so in any case. Ben-Gvir is demanding the post of Defense Minister. • Joint List and Ra'am are the two Arab parties (14). • No side has openly expressed interest in joining forces with the Arab parties, as all three blocs risk alienating their right-wing voters. But to gain victory, Yashar will likely need to cross that line. • Ultra-Orthodox Shas and Yahadut HaTorah (15): Shas are very possibly to align with Likud again. Although Yahadut HaTorah previously broke with Likud’s bloc, the departure of Yuli Edelstein from Likud, Moshe Gafni’s emergence as the party’s new leader, and Netanyahu’s decision to delay the conscription law (likely just election talk) make it increasingly expected that Yahadut HaTorah will join Shas in the Likud-led bloc. • It's very unlikely for the ultra-Orthodox to join any of the other two blocs, as the other blocs heavily favor pushing the conscription law for the ultra-Orthodox community. • Amach Yisrael (5), a far-right party has not publicly stated which bloc it would join. Israeli media speculate they will probably join Likud's bloc. Predicted blocs: Likud-bloc, 51: - Likud: 21, - Otzma Yehudit: 8, - Yahadut HaTorah: 8, - Shas: 7, - Tkuma: 7. Yashar-bloc, 43: - Yashar: 23, - Democrats: 11, - Yisrael Beiteinu: 9. Other: - Bachad, 11. - Joint List + Ra'am (Arab coalition), 14. - Amach Yisrael, 5. For Eisenkot’s Yashar, the decisive factor is Naftali Bennett. If Bennett joins forces with Eisenkot, the bloc could potentially unseat Netanyahu on 27 October. However, Bennett has yet to publicly commit to joining Yashar, as he harbours ambitions of returning to the Prime Minister's office himself.

🇪🇹⚡- Debretsion Gebremichael, President of the Tigray region and Commander of the Tigray Defense Force, says Addis Ababa has waged a war aimed at seizing access to the Red Sea. He rejected characterisations of the current conflict as a civil war, arguing that it has instead evolved into a regional conflict.

🇪🇹⚡- The battle for Maychew, Tigray region, has begun, with the Ethiopian Armed Forces, ENDF, entering the southern outskirts of the city. Heavy street fighting ongoing. Map key: - Red: Ethiopian Armed Forces, - Green: Tigray Defense Forces.