Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸

🇮🇱 - Israeli Channel 13's latest prediction polls for the October 27th elections: Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 23 Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 21 Bichad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 11 Democrats (Yair Golan) - 11 Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 9 Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 9 Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 8 Yahadut HaTorah (Moshe Gafni) - 8 Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 7 Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 7 Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 5 Amach Yisrael (Ofer Winter) - 5 61 required for a majority. • Yashar, Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu are widely believed to join a bloc (43). • Likud and Tkuma are very likely to run together again (28). • Otzma Yehudit hasn't openly declared they would join the Likud-bloc again, but are expected to do so in any case. Ben-Gvir is demanding the post of Defense Minister. • Joint List and Ra'am are the two Arab parties (14). • No side has openly expressed interest in joining forces with the Arab parties, as all three blocs risk alienating their right-wing voters. But to gain victory, Yashar will likely need to cross that line. • Ultra-Orthodox Shas and Yahadut HaTorah (15): Shas are very possibly to align with Likud again. Although Yahadut HaTorah previously broke with Likud’s bloc, the departure of Yuli Edelstein from Likud, Moshe Gafni’s emergence as the party’s new leader, and Netanyahu’s decision to delay the conscription law (likely just election talk) make it increasingly expected that Yahadut HaTorah will join Shas in the Likud-led bloc. • It's very unlikely for the ultra-Orthodox to join any of the other two blocs, as the other blocs heavily favor pushing the conscription law for the ultra-Orthodox community. • Amach Yisrael (5), a far-right party has not publicly stated which bloc it would join. Israeli media speculate they will probably join Likud's bloc. Predicted blocs: Likud-bloc, 51: - Likud: 21, - Otzma Yehudit: 8, - Yahadut HaTorah: 8, - Shas: 7, - Tkuma: 7. Yashar-bloc, 43: - Yashar: 23, - Democrats: 11, - Yisrael Beiteinu: 9. Other: - Bachad, 11. - Joint List + Ra'am (Arab coalition), 14. - Amach Yisrael, 5. For Eisenkot’s Yashar, the decisive factor is Naftali Bennett. If Bennett joins forces with Eisenkot, the bloc could potentially unseat Netanyahu on 27 October. However, Bennett has yet to publicly commit to joining Yashar, as he harbours ambitions of returning to the Prime Minister's office himself.