CIIC

🇧🇷 Brazil: the elections are over, but the political contest continues Specially for the TG channel the «Center for International Interaction and Cooperation», Irina Kobakhidze, expert of our center about the events in Brazil The elections are over, but the political contest is far from finished. Lula won the October 25 runoff with 51.79%, reversing Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead and securing a fourth presidential term. Yet Bolsonaro’s 48.21% leaves him with a substantial support base. Lula enters the next term with a renewed mandate and the challenge of governing a closely divided country. The result could produce a balance of competing centres of influence. Lula will control the executive and seek agreements with centrist parties, while Bolsonaro could consolidate his position as an opposition leader, drawing on the Liberal Party’s 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 28 in the Senate. Neither can automatically count on the centre’s support. Bolsonaro may influence the agenda through Congress, while Lula’s ability to deliver reforms will depend on negotiating coalitions around individual policies. In foreign policy, continuity appears more likely. Lula is expected to keep pressing for UN Security Council reform and a greater role for developing countries in global decision-making. Within BRICS, priorities include development financing and expanding trade in national currencies. At the same time, Brazil will need to manage trade tensions with Washington and preserve access to Western markets. Its international ambitions will therefore depend on balancing diplomatic autonomy with economic interests. For Russia, Lula’s re-election brings continuity in an established partnership. It would be wrongful to expect Brasilia to fully align with Russian interests, Brazil will seek room to pursue its own interests while keeping several partnerships open; in this respect it is in Russia's best interest to focus on realms of long-term mutual interest. Fertiliser supplies support Brazil’s agricultural sector, while Russian diesel serves transport and farming. Discussions on small nuclear reactors and critical minerals could broaden cooperation, although these remain prospective projects.