❗️️IMF warns oil prices could surge to $130 per barrel in 2027 if war in West Asia persists The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that oil prices could climb to $130 per barrel in 2027 if the war in West Asia continues to disrupt energy production and trade. Speaking during the presentation of the IMF’s regional economic outlook, Roberto Cardarelli, deputy director of its Middle East and Central Asia Department, said a prolonged war could reduce global oil production by an additional four million barrels per day. Under its baseline scenario, which assumes the war eases and Gulf energy supplies gradually normalize, the IMF projects average oil prices of $96 per barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027. Cardarelli warned that prolonged supply disruptions would have severe consequences for regional and global economies, particularly oil-importing countries facing higher energy costs and inflation potentially one percentage point above baseline projections. He also outlined an alternative risk: a major correction in the US artificial intelligence sector could weaken global demand and drive oil prices 30% below baseline forecasts, hurting oil-exporting economies while providing some relief to importers.