Suriyakmaps

This new strategy follows two objectives: to contain the Russians until the arrival of autumn, when the rain and mud make it difficult for heavy vehicles to advance, forcing them to use secondary roads and significantly slowing down logistics and operations; and, secondly, to create a propaganda image of victory by portraying infiltration zones as captured territory, which has on other occasions resulted in a fresh surge of external aid to Ukraine to enable it to continue the war. Both objectives seems to have been reached now. However, the problem lies in the limitations and costs of this new strategy in the long term. The deployment of these reserve troops alleviates the existing problem of understaffed brigades, helps to hold positions, strengthen defences and reduce the strain on existing units, whilst also dispelling the narrative of a shortage of Ukrainian troops that has been repeated for months. However, the accelerated deployment of troops with little or no experience ultimately loses its saturation effect once there are sufficient numbers of troops on the defending side. This substantially increases the attackers’ casualties (this year the Ukrainians have suffered heavy losses in these local counter-offensives) and leaves a gap in the rear ranks of personnel who are key to resupplying the troops at the front; consequently, in the long term, the overall situation at the front would not only fail to improve but would actually worsen, especially given that this year the Russians have managed to establish drone supremacy across much of the front lines. And the impact is not only military, but also social, as there are currently reservists on the front line who were forcibly conscripted; consequently, a rise in casualties amongst these inexperienced troops – deployed to achieve political and media objectives (without this guaranteeing progress towards a victory, as Zelenskyy seeks) – will have a negative effect by increasing draft evasion and fuelling further social unrest on the streets of Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇷🇺