Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸

🇮🇱 - Latest polling average (last 10 polls published yesterday): Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 22 seats Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 22 seats B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 12 seats Democrats (Yair Golan) - 9 seats Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 9 seats Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 8 seats Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 8 seats Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 8 seats Yahadut HaTorah (Ya'akov Asher) - 7 seats Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 6 seats Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 5 seats Likud-bloc: 51 seats (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Tkuma) Yashar-bloc: 51 seats (Yashar, B'Yachad*, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu) Arab-coalition: 13 seats (Joint List, Ra'am). *Assuming Bennett join's an Eisenkot-led bloc.

🇮🇱⚡️ — A truck transporting Tamir interceptor missiles for Israel's Iron Dome SHORAD system was spotted in northern Israel.

🇮🇱⚡- Netanyahu met Moti Leitner of HaTzibur HaHaredi last night and urged him to quit the race so right-wing votes aren’t wasted.

🇮🇱⚡- Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Ofer Winter to resign from the race ahead of next week's elections.

🇹🇷🇱🇾⚡- Turkey and eastern Libya's House of Representatives, HoR, have both ratified the controversial maritime agreement between the two countries. Libya's HoR passed the martime boundary agreement unanimously just two weeks after HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh was removed from his post. Saleh had long opposed Turkish influence in the country, western Libya's GNU, and maintained high-level relations with Cairo and Athens instead. Saleh rejected the maritime agreement with Ankara in 2019 and 2020. Israeli, Egyptian and Greek Foreign Ministries have all condemned the agreement. "Israel strongly condemns the decision of the Libyan House of Representatives to ratify the Maritime Jurisdiction Memorandum between Turkey and Libya. This agreement infringes upon the sovereign rights of our close allies in the region. Regretfully, once again we see Turkey working to destabilise the east Mediterranean region," - Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

🇮🇶🇮🇷⚡- "Iraq will not allow its territory to be used to threaten neighboring countries [Saudi Arabia] and will not embrace any armed group [Iran-backed militias] participating in a specific conflict," - Iraq's Government Spokesman.

🇮🇶🇮🇷⚡- On the orders of Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Baghdad has closed its main southern land border crossing with Iran until further notice. The reason for the closure is to stop the "smuggling of prohibited materials". Baghdad has stated other border crossings with Iran will also gradually close.

🇮🇷🇮🇶⚡- A tanker was struck by a projectile southeast of al-Faw, Iraq, in the Gulf. No damage reported, with the crew safe, UKMTO reports.

🇺🇸🇷🇺⚡- Tomorrow, October 22, the first Russian tanker carrying 40,000 tonnes of diesel leaves port, bound for the United States, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has announced. The crossing to the US East Coast should take around three weeks. It’s the first tranche of 300,000 tonnes promised for October under the Trump–Putin deal. The shipment to the US violates Moscow's own ban on diesel exports which has been in place since July. The ban has been extended three times in barely three months as Ukrainian drones knocked out huge chunks of its refining capacity. It has reached a point where Russia is now sending its crude to Kazakhstan to be refined there, with around 70% of the resulting diesel shipped straight back to Russia at higher price.

🇸🇾🇮🇱⚡- For the past four to five days, southern Syria has seen intense Israeli military activity. Waves of transport helicopters have been landing in Druze-held As-Suwaida, under cover from Israeli fighter jets and drones. Some of this jet movement has been misidentified as Israeli simulations and exercises against Iran. In the last 48 hours, the Druze National Guard has sealed off Tal al-Qleib, Jabal al-Arab’s fourth-highest peak, barring civilians from approaching it or photographing the surrounding area. Tal al-Qleib was a former Syrian air defence radar base, heavily bombed by Israel in October 2024 during Assad's era, and hit again as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept into Damascus. Its fortifications are still intact, with the site being surveyed by Israeli Druze. Syrian sources claim, though unconfirmed, that Israel has flown advanced weapons systems onto the summit, including radars. The view from the top commands a look of over 40 km, across most of the Hauran plain, including the former Syrian army 5th Division base at Izra’, Dara'a province. An advanced radar there would also give Israel early warnings of Iranian ballistic missiles coming in from the east. Over the past few days, multiple Israeli and Syrian outlets have reported that the Druze National Guard are preparing for a possible offensive against the Syrian government. While a march on Damascus looks very unlikely, a push west, down onto the Hauran plain towards Dara'a, is entirely possibility. Map key: Purple: Israeli-controlled southern Syria post-Assad. Green: Damascus-controlled Syria. Blue: Druze National Guard (Israeli + UAE backed). Rerum Novarum’s proprietary maps are now available at MINIMAP.TECHNOLOGY

🇦🇺⚡️- The husband of Australian MP Helen Haines, who was attacked in a terrorist attack, has confirmed that both of her legs have been amputated as a result of her injuries. Her husband also stated that Helen is alive and in stable condition after the amputation.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “Iran is not an evil regime. They’re a religious theocracy whose practice and content we respect. The adversarial role the IRGC has with Israel has been a problem.” - U.S. Envoy to Turkey Tom Barrack.

🇺🇸🗳- An investigation by FiftyPlusOne into Wedgewood Polls, a supposed polling firm that was included in the New York Times, RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silvers poll averages, revealed that the firm was faking their data. They admitted to doing so on social media after inquiries by FiftyPlusOne. Wedgewood Polls had systemically overestimated the support of DSA backed candidates throughout the year particularly in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine. Their polls were cited by Democrat Mallory McMarrow for seriously damaging her campaign against Abdul El-Sayed during the primary race where they showed her losing badly to the GOP compared to El-Sayed. Wedgewood also showed DSA Wisconsin Gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong winning the primary by far more than she did in reality alongside being ahead of the GOP candidate in the general. Wedgewood is the third polling firm this year to be exposed as fabricating data. The other two being TPSI and Median Strategies.

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️- BREAKING: Israel planned a major bombing campaign against Iran on October 10, but the attack was halted by President Trump, according to the Financial Times. The strikes would have targeted Iranian civilian and military infrastructure.

🇮🇷🇸🇾🇮🇱⚡️- Israeli fighter jets flew over Syria earlier tonight on a route toward Iran, conducting “military drills,” according to Fox News.

🇺🇸🇮🇳⚡️- Vivek Ramaswamy confirms that the ad is from his campaign and defends it saying that Acton is a notorious liar. Ramaswamy goes on to say everyone close to her says not to vote for her.

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️- U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff will present a new peace proposal to Russian President Vladimir Putin when the two men meet in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, according to Axios. One U.S. official says the U.S. hopes the proposal will create a pathway for direct trilateral negotiations, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted should be the next step.

🇺🇸🇮🇳⚡️- Just seconds into his campaign event tonight, Vivek Ramaswamy was heckled by a man over his ad featuring his opponent Amy Acton's abusive mother.

🇺🇸⚡️- In an interview with Walter Isaacson, Elon Musk revealed the mass shooting at a bar in Austin, Texas on March 1st earlier this year was a former employee at the Tesla factory in Austin. Elon also revealed that Senegalese-born Ndiaga Diagne was fired after he violently assaulted a woman at the Tesla factory when she mistakenly stepped on his prayer rug, which he had out in the factory. Ndiaga Diagne committed the terrorist attack following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the start of Operation Epic Fury while wearing a sweatshirt displaying the words, “Property of Allah,” and an Iranian flag t-shirt underneath.

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️- BREAKING: Elon Musk ordered the speed restrictions on Ukraine’s Starlink connection that severely limited Ukrainian drone operations, according to The Wall Street Journal. One source told WSJ that Musk spoke to multiple Trump administration officials, including President Trump, before making the decision. Both Musk and President Trump have since denied responsibility for the slowdown, with Musk even blaming President Trump and the U.S. military for the restrictions.