Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸

🇮🇷🇴🇲⚡- UKMTO reports Iran forced a tanker to turn around that attempted to leave the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker complied with the IRGC instructions.

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡- BREAKING: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has ceased operations again following Ansarullah attacks on a number of pumping stations, AFP reports. Update: Reuters and Bloomberg have denied AFP's report, stating the pipeline is operating as normal.

🇾🇪 - The approximate current situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area, Mocha direction, southwest Yemen. PLC forces have captured Murad. Control over Dhubab Airport is practically impossible without securing al-Omari, which remains under Ansarullah control. Therefore, the airport likely remains under al-Houthi control, or at best, lies within a grey-zone. The control of Mayun Island also remains unclear.

🇾🇪⚡- The Presidential Leadership Council of Yemen announces the start of Operation 'Dawn of Yemen'.

🇾🇪 - Additional documentation of the Giant Brigades at the northern gates of Dhubab Airport, Mocha direction, southwest Yemen.

🇾🇪⚡- PLC forces have entered Dhubab Airport, and have captured Murad in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area, southwest Yemen. Rerum Novarum have geolocated several videos with their locations shown on the map.

🇾🇪 - Reports of non-PLC affiliated former Southern Transitional Council military formations assisting the Saudi-backed PLC against Ansarullah are false. Media affiliated with the Storm and Security Belt formations have denied the reports.

🇰🇿🇷🇺⚡- "The situation in Kazakhstan remains under continuous monitoring, and the necessary preventive measures have been taken. Sanitary and quarantine controls are being carried out at border crossing points," - Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan.

🇷🇺⚡- More than 60 people have been isolated at the Anti-Plague Institute, where the outbreak originated and initially claimed the life of a 27-year-old worker. A further 200+ people are being monitored by authorities.

🇺🇸🇷🇺⚡- The White House is monitoring the lab plague outbreak in Irkutsk, Russia, Axios reports.

🇪🇸⚡- BREAKING: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called for an early election on November 29.

🇾🇪⚡- Pro-PLC Giants Brigades are conducting successful counterattacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area of southwestern Yemen. The exact extent of their territorial gains remains unclear, as the situation on the ground remains fluid.

🇪🇹🇪🇷⚡- Several Ethiopian and neutral sources report that large columns of Eritrean troops have crossed into Ethiopia and entered northern Tigray, particularly around Adigrat, the Tigray Defense Forces stronghold. The reports remain unconfirmed.

🇪🇹🇪🇷⚡- Ethiopian airstrikes against the city of Rama, and the towns of Fada and Awo, northern Tigray region, along Eritrea's border. Note, Rama has allegedly been under Eritrean military control since late 2022.

🇧🇷⚡️- At 99.1% counted: Flavio Bolsonaro: 47.20% Lula: 44.96%

🇧🇷- In 2022, Lula had a 5.2pts lead over Jair Bolsonaro during the first turn. Lula's lead shrunk to 1.8pts in the second turn as he narrowly won with 50.9% of the votes. Flavio Bolsonaro has strengthened his position in virtually all of the municipalities compared to 2022 and has flipped the vital region of Minas Gerais. Lula is projected to lose against Flavio Bolsonaro later this month. Should Lula manage to come back from the sizeable setback of tonight, he is guaranteed to have diminished power as he will have no control over the Senate or the Chamber of Deputies.

🇧🇷⚡️- At 98.7% counted: Flavio Bolsonaro: 47.24% Lula: 44.91% Flavio Bolsonaro is leading with +2.34pts as results are nearly complete. Flavio Bolsonaro will face Lula during the second turn of the Brazilian presidential election on the 25th of October.

🗳 🇧🇷 📈 The most useful visualization is this one here, from Electomaps (inspired by the NYTimes). Showing the difference in the vote compared to 2022 for president. The size of the arrow is the size of the variation, the color is which way it went. Data is still quite incomplete, of course, but it's worth following: 📎 Pedro Burgos

🇧🇷⚡️- At 91.4% counted: Flavio Bolsonaro: 47.94% Lula: 44.09% It is becoming increasingly likely that Flavio Bolsonaro will end up with a lead of around +2pts, giving him an advantage over Lula for the second turn of the presidential elections.