Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸

🇮🇱 - Israeli elections outcome: - Likud bloc: 53 seats (Likud 27, Otzma Yehudit 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 6, Tkuma 6) - Yashar bloc: 48 seats (Yashar 21, B’Yachad 12, The Democrats 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 7) - Arab parties: 19 seats (Joint List 12, Ra’am 7) - Others: 0 seats (the remaining parties wasted an estimated 3–4 seats worth of votes below the threshold) With no bloc reaching 61 seats, neither side has a majority to form a government. The deadlock leaves several possible scenarios. Option 1: A unity government This would resemble the Netanyahu–Gantz government of 2020. Reports last week claimed President Trump has pushed for such an arrangement, under which Netanyahu would serve the first half of the term before retiring, with Gadi Eisenkot leading for the remainder. The obstacles: - Eisenkot has ruled out serving in government with Netanyahu, though not with Likud itself. However, it is very unlikely that Likud will replace Netanyahu. - Eisenkot will not sit with Ben-Gvir or Smotrich because of their far-right rhetoric, which rules out Otzma Yehudit and Tkuma. - Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu will not join a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. Lieberman is one of the strongest advocates of universal conscription, which both parties fiercely oppose. - Likud will not join a government with The Democrats, given Yair Golan’s support for a two-state solution. That leaves one unity configuration: Likud without Netanyahu (27), Yashar (21), B’Yachad (12) and Yisrael Beiteinu (7). That comes to 67 seats, comfortably enough to govern. However, a configuration very unlikely, ruling out a unity government. Option 2: A minority government - A Likud minority government is impossible. Even if the entire Likud bloc (53 seats) voted in favour, and even assuming three defections from Eisenkot’s camp, it would reach only 56. The opposition, made up of the remaining 45 seats (=48-3) of Eisenkot’s camp and the 19 Arab seats, would total 64. Could Eisenkot form a minority government instead? It’s a realistic scenario, but a very risky one. - Eisenkot trails the Likud bloc by five seats, so he needs six votes from outside his camp to outvote it. Ra’am has joined Israeli-led coalitions before, most notably the Bennett–Lapid government in 2021. The Joint List has also openly discussed backing any arrangement that removes the Likud bloc from power, whether by abstaining or even voting for an Eisenkot minority government. However, the Arab nationalist Balad, part of the Joint List, has previously ruled out formally joining a coalition with Israeli parties. What it could look like: the Yashar bloc (48), assuming two defectors from the Likud camp, most of Ra’am (6) and even two Joint List seats, giving 58 seats. If the remaining 10 Joint List members abstained, the Likud bloc couldn’t defeat it even at its full strength of 53. Eisenkot would win the confidence vote and become prime minister. The risk: a large majority of Yashar, and all of Yisrael Beiteinu, strongly oppose working with the Arab parties. Even if they accept the Arab parties abstaining (which some extremist members do not), this scenario would require around half a dozen Arab votes in favour, which could trigger mass defections within the Yashar camp. Several members could break away and sit as independents or, worse, join Likud, potentially pushing the Likud bloc past 61 seats. Option 3: A second election The likely outcome is no government is formed. Negotiations keep failing because, for both sides, the risks far outweigh the rewards, and a second election is called for April 2027. Throughout the process, Benjamin Netanyahu assumes the role of a caretaker prime minister, a position from which he could launch military operations on several fronts and push his approval ratings back up in time for April.