🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 1/3: Currently Rerum Novarum is forecasting the Midterm results as follows: House: 240 D - 195 R Senate: 50 D - 50 R Governor Races: 26 D - 24 R As election day rapidly approaches the GOP chances for a comeback quickly are fading to zero. We have expanded our house forecast to Democrats winning 240 seats, however we are now predicting that Susan Collins re-election in Maine will save the GOP majority in the Senate, so long as Vivek Ramaswamy doesn't destroy the entire GOP ticket in Ohio and Iowa splits its vote. We have also switched the Governors race in Georgia to the GOP as Rick Jackson looks like he will defeat the former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms. The Democrats however will control the majority of Governorships for the first time in over 16 years. When analyzing the trends and behavior of both parties we are seeing the GOP deep on defense heavily spending on GOTV efforts in Republican territory in order to stave off a total collapse. Trump himself is also campaigning mainly in red states like Iowa and Mississippi only visiting North Carolina and Michigan once. Despite the GOP in clear retreat, campaigns in swing states and even blue states fending for themselves are finding some life in a heavily negative environment. Many pollsters and commentators are saying that the GOP will not fare nearly as poorly in blue states as expected while being given a huge wakeup call in red territory. We agree with this analysis, voter enthusiasm in red America is in the toilet and GOP politicians return home to angry residents everyday complaining about corruption, gas prices, and the Iran War. However local anger at Democrat leadership and the continued deterioration of blue states are giving the GOP a little leg to stand on in enemy territory. An NBC survey which polled respondents based on if they would vote this year or not found that the large group of Americans who will not vote this November lean heavily Republican. This NBC survey also found that 71% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, 82% say their finances are worse than last year, and show Trump's approval below 35% on every top issue including cost of living, the economy, corruption, AI, and the Iran War. The only high point in polling on Trump in any survey is on the border and immigration, where he has an approval rating anywhere between 44%-50% depending on the survey. What must be mentioned however is that in every single election during the Trump era, the GOP as a party have outran Trump's approval ratings. This happened in 2016 when the GOP House won the popular vote while he lost it, in 2020 when the GOP was only 40,000 votes in a few districts away from winning the majority, and in 2022 when the GOP won the House popular vote by 3 points while Trump remained a pariah. Whether this trend holds up this year is up for debate, but an argument for why it may happen again is that Trumpism is clearly in its twilight days, we will expand on this in another post. The GOP's closing message for the campaign is nonexistent with Trump's promise of a $5000 check to all adults being denounced by virtually all GOP candidates. Major missteps from the Admin including the planned then cancelled live execution of the Fort Hood terrorist and Trump/Vance's defense of the Ramaswamy ad attacking Amy Acton for being raped as a pre-teen have put GOP candidates on the backfoot in almost every case. The only positives for the GOP is candidate quality in certain key races on the Democrat side in Michigan, and Maine. Although we expect Abdul El-Sayed to win it is still very possible for Mike Rogers to pull out a majority saving victory for the GOP. Susan Collins democrat opponent in Maine has failed to put up a successful offense.