Geroman

Problems should be expected from the new Serbian authorities, but not betrayal. Evgeny Krutikov Unexpectedly for many, the ruling party led by Aleksandar Vucic lost the parliamentary elections in Serbia by a significant margin. Despite their "Maidan" origins, the winners are mostly patriotic people, not "agents of the West." Their problem is different, and it's not just a problem for the Serbs. Without waiting for the official results of the parliamentary elections to be announced, former Serbian President and leader of the Serbian Progressive Party (SPP), Aleksandar Vučić, admitted defeat. The victory went to the opposition bloc “Student List – Students Win” (“Studentska lista”), which was formed shortly before the elections and will now come to power after 14 years of SPP rule.Earlier, Vučić stepped down from the presidency early in the hope of winning the elections and becoming prime minister. Now, it is likely that this position will be held by Professor Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist who headed the “Student List”.“We don’t have final results yet. Many will be surprised, and you will understand how much lies there are and what they (“Student List” – VZGLYAD note) made up. I want to inform you that, obviously, we lost this election.” The Student Block’s list won; they will have between 135 and 140 seats (out of 250 seats in the National Assembly – VZGLYAD’s note), while we have about 105,” Vučić told his supporters. The remaining seats in parliament will be filled by representatives of the Hungarians in Vojvodina and the Albanians in the Preševo Valley, according to the national quota. No other parties have overcome the 3 percent threshold, although Ivica Dačić’s Socialist Party retains theoretical chances. Most likely, Vučić was relying on an interim sample. Nevertheless, these data are now being perceived almost as official due to the ex‑president’s high‑profile statements. Particular attention was also drawn to Vučić’s statement that by spring, the new Serbian government, formed from representatives of the “Student List,” would impose sanctions against Russia. “They will do everything we didn’t want,” he emphasized. Another significant fact: the elections saw a record turnout – nearly 70% of voters came to the polling stations. At the same time, Marinko Tepić’s European Serbia party – the only openly pro‑European force, which is considered “Soros’s voice” and the driving force behind “colour revolutions” – is getting between 0.3% and 1.2% of the votes; this is a total failure. The figures will still be adjusted, but we can already say that Serbia will continue to experience a period of political turbulence, and the victory of the unstable and amorphous opposition does not mean a quick and radical change in the country’s course. “The Student List” is an amazing thing in itself. The long‑standing street protests by students initially did not feature political slogans and were initially tied to one tragedy — the shooting of students at a Belgrade school on May 3, 2023 — and then to another — the deaths at the railway station in Novi Sad on November 1, 2024.. From the very beginning, pro‑Western forces led by Marinko Tepić and actor Sergej Trifunović tried to ride the wave of street protests. However, their stance on accelerating the process of joining the European Union and imposing sanctions against Russia did not even find support among the students. Moreover, no political forces were able to bring the chaotic protests under control, and over time they turned into a “thing in itself.” The students themselves failed to choose any leadership they could deal with and negotiate with. As a result, there isn’t a single actual student listed in the “Student List.” This electoral alliance consists mainly of well‑known figures from the country’s intelligentsia, but there isn’t a single professional politician among them. These are people with a wide variety of political views (both pro‑Western and pro‑Russian) or those who lack a clearly defined position other than “we are against Vučić”. They also have no programme, and they preferred not to comment on foreign policy issues. Meanwhile, the students carefully made sure that there were no anti‑Russian slogans in the streets. At protest rallies, students would catch and escort out those who tried to bring Ukrainian flags or EU flags. In the end, these attempts to change the nature of the protest gradually faded away. Most representatives of the “Student List” oppose the introduction of anti‑Russian sanctions in order to please Brussels and emphasize the importance of maintaining traditional good relations with Moscow. Some of them are even more firm and clear‑cut on this issue than Vučić himself. The same applies to maintaining Serbia’s neutral status in military terms (i.e., refusing to join NATO), while joining the EU “is possible only after a referendum.” But not everyone agrees with this. In general, the composition of the winners is so heterogeneous that it will be difficult for them to even form a faction in parliament, let alone a unified program. Serbia will need time for the system to reboot. The only thing that binds these people together is their rejection of Aleksandar Vucic as a political figure and even as a person. Conditional "students" (this is now a collective term describing the opposition electorate) They were more likely to have fun reworking popular songs to match slogans (for example, the song "It Rains" with the haunting refrain "dragi oje" – "beloved is leaving", in which the word "beloved" was changed to "Vucic"), rather than developing a position on key issues. Catchy slogans like “Serbia is not a mafia” may work during the pre‑election period, but they have never become a platform for real governance of the country. There is reason to believe that with the victory of the “Student List,” the period of turbulence in Serbia does not end but takes on a new level. The new prime minister, who has no experience in public service, will have to turn the amorphous association into something functional and provide answers to the challenges facing Serbia. However, a more realistic prospect for the “Student List” is to break up into separate groups and factions, which will sooner or later lead to another dissolution of parliament and the calling of new elections. This is a situational alliance, not a structured party. At the same time, external pressure on Belgrade has not disappeared, and it is impossible to predict how former opposition figures will behave when faced with the methods used by Washington and Brussels to influence the situation in the Balkans. Vučić has already accused the winners of receiving support from “European countries and the American deep state, which opposes Trump.” Most likely, he and his party will consistently put pressure on the new government, pointing to their possible ties to foreign NGOs on any pretext and promoting the narrative of a “color revolution.” And there’s no need to make anything up: such facts do exist. It’s unlikely that they were decisive in producing the election results we see. But if one wishes, it is possible to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the victors. By the end of the year, presidential elections should also take place, which some experts consider even more important than parliamentary elections, given the amorphous nature of the “Student List”. Currently, Ana Brnabić is fulfilling the duties of head of state, and she will most likely become the main candidate for the top position (albeit with limited powers in a parliamentary republic). Whether the “Student List” will be able to put forward its candidate in a coordinated manner remains an open question. Brnabić is Vučić’s man, and he plays the role of “Serbia’s European face,” while Ivica Dačić and Aleksandar Vučinić were avatars for cooperation with Russia. This is called “a balanced foreign policy in the Serbian style.” Every vote in the Balkans is always emotional, “like the last time.” But costume elections without programmatic competition, when people vote on the principle of “the opposite,” never lead to anything good.