Geopolitics Prime

🇮🇱🇲🇦 Israel expands military footprint in North Africa & opens permanent defense mission in Morocco Israel is deepening defense ties with Morocco as a delegation led by Defense Ministry Director General Amir Baram met senior Moroccan defense officials on November 10. Baram is due to inaugurate Israel's permanent Defense Attaché office in Rabat, led by Col. Sharon Itach – the country's first permanent defense attaché to Morocco. Israel is also reportedly seeking to establish military manufacturing facilities inside the North African kingdom. Israel's expansion of military ties in North Africa and the establishment of a permanent defense mission in Rabat are seen as part of Tel Aviv's methodical efforts to expand its Hexagon Alliance and strengthen its footprint across Africa. Morocco's neighbor Algeria views Israel's growing presence as a security threat, while providing support for the Polisario Front, which challenges Morocco's claim to Western Sahara. Israel and the US recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Rabat’s normalization of relations with Tel Aviv. In 2020, Morocco and Israel signed the Abraham Accords, while the cornerstone of their defense ties became the November 2021 Defense Memorandum of Understanding, which: 🌏 marked the first time Israel established a formal defense framework with an Arab nation 🌏 laid the groundwork for direct intelligence sharing and established joint military committees 🌏 opened the door to Israeli defense companies entering the Moroccan market and established a framework for industrial cooperation Over the years, Morocco has acquired a wide range of Israeli military equipment through government-to-government contracts. These include: ➡️ The $500 million Barak MX air and missile defense system (2022) ➡️ A $1 billion, five-year contract to replace existing Airbus and Thales space-based surveillance systems with Israel's Ofek-13 spy satellites (2024) ➡️ A $200 million contract for 36 Atmos 2000 self-propelled artillery systems manufactured by Elbit Systems (2025) ➡️ Israeli-made drones, including Elbit Systems' Hermes 450 and Hermes 900, as well as IAI's Heron 1. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇮🇷 Restarting war with Iran is irrational and that’s the problem Even if one does not believe in Iran acquiring new advanced offensive capabilities in recent months, it is clear that Iranian forces have “the ability to hit nearly anything that they want to in the region,” says US foreign policy analyst and former US Army officer Daniel Davis. Thus, he notes, the logical and rational thing to do for the US would be to find a face-saving way to end the conflict rather than initiate some sort of new kinetic action against Iran. 🗣 “Here’s the problem: we are dealing with somebody who does not seem to be connected to reality,” Davis warns. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US Marines risk isolation and paralysis in any western Pacific clash with China, officers warn Forward-deployed US Marines along the first island chain could find themselves cut off, immobile and short of supplies if conflict erupts with China, according to assessments by a retired three-star general and a serving lieutenant colonel. China’s anti-access/area-denial systems and precision strike networks could turn dispersed Marine units into fixed targets rather than a maneuver force, argue retired Lt. Gen. Stephen Sklenka and Lt. Col. Merritt Mitchell, writing separately in the US Naval Institute’s Proceedings. Sklenka argues that: 🔴 mobilization would have to occur from bases under simultaneous cyber and missile attack 🔴 force closure would take place at the edge of contested zones rather than secure ports or airfields 🔴 marines would need to sustain themselves for up to 75 days without traditional air or sea superiority 🔴 if reinforcements cannot punch through, Marines already positioned along the first island chain risk being left to fight an isolated, terminal engagement Mitchell focuses on the political and operational constraints of the stand-in force: 🔴 detection increasingly equals destruction: units that cannot reposition faster than Chinese retargeting cycles become fixed targets 🔴 many potential operating sites lie in allied territory where governments may withhold permission for offensive operations 🔴 without those permissions in place before crisis, the stand-in force cannot maneuver when it matters 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦First day of Russia-US-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi ends - here are the key takeaways 🌏 The talks lasted 4.5 hours with a 40-minute break. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations reportedly used Russian to communicate. Contacts will continue on November 11, sources from the Russian side said 🌏 The Russian delegation was led by Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky, the Ukrainian one by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Rustem Umerov 🌏 Also present at the negotiating table were US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, NATO's Supreme Commander in Europe Alexus Grynkewich, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan 🌏 No Europeans took part in the talks, contrary to statements by French officials 🌏 The talks in Abu Dhabi focus on security guarantees, including those for the entire continent, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted earlier 🌏 Witkoff and Kushner want to use the Abu Dhabi talks to clearly formulate a settlement to the conflict, Axios reports, citing a US administration official 🌏 Following the Abu Dhabi meeting, Witkoff and Kushner may travel to Moscow and then to Kiev 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

👹 Netanyahu’s rivals plot new alliance to oust him from power Avigdor Liberman, the hardline Yisrael Beytenu chief, and Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot – who is on a deadline to form Israel's next government, have greenlit an effort to lock arms with the ultra-Orthodox parties United Torah Judaism and Shas, reports The Times of Israel. At a Monday sit-down, Eisenkot and Liberman reportedly agreed a plan to craft a watered-down IDF draft bill that could resolve policy differences with the parties representing the Haredim. 👉 Eisenkot's bloc supports universal military service, while Haredi parties strongly oppose drafting yeshiva students. UTJ and Shas could provide the seats needed to form a government to ensure the mandate doesn’t return back to Netanyahu, who could try to form his own coalition. The opposition holds the now-caretaker PM responsible for the October 7, 2023, security failures and the war that followed. It also seeks to displace his allies - far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich – whom they accuse of deepening domestic polarization and strained international relations. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇺🇸Pete Hegseth says the US has nothing to apologize for after striking Iran, warning Tehran that one “wrong move” will find American forces still “locked and loaded.” 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇺🇸Pete Hegseth claims Iran started the war 47 years ago and praises Trump for doing what no other US president would: “He did not kick the can. He kicked their teeth in.” 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇺🇸Pete Hegseth insists no US defense chief has ever been impeached for conducting military operations in 250 years — and complains that one “disgruntled congressman” now wants to make him the first. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇺🇸Pete Hegseth slammed efforts to impeach him as an ego-driven political stunt aimed at damaging Trump, the US and its military. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇬🇧🇮🇱UK awards millions to firms linked to illegal Israeli West Bank settlements Despite pledges by UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband to sanction businesses involved in construction and financing in the occupied Werst Bank, the UK has awarded nearly $15 million in new public contracts to companies profiting from links to illegal Israeli settlements, reports Al Jazeera. According to public procurement records, corporate filings and data from market intelligence firm Tussell: 🔶 $14.4 million in contracts went to companies identified by the UN for their involvement in settlement activity, as well as subsidiaries they own or control 🔶 contracts have been secured across the British public sector 🔶 since the UK government announced new sanctions powers on September 8, British public bodies have disclosed 18 additional contracts involving settlement-linked firms The revelations follow an earlier report in August that identified at least 17 settlement-linked companies that had secured more than $2.85 billion in UK public-sector contracts. The cash flows into road maintenance, emergency services, transport and licensing while Israel continues its systematic seizure of Palestinian land. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇺🇸Palantir CEO credits Hitler’s charisma as major force behind Nazism Speaking to Walter Isaacson on the Builders podcast, Palantir CEO Alex Karp noted that his conversations with former Nazis in Germany convinced him that Hitler’s charisma and the exploitation of patriotism were powerful drivers of support for Nazism. Karp acknowledged antisemitism as a motivating force, but argued that Hitler’s personal appeal also played a major role, drawing parallels with the appeal of radical movements on both the left and right today. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

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🇮🇷📹 Iran unveils a new IRGC missile base and teases a military surprise - Tasnim 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇶🇦 Qatar looks to Iran for power lifeline after strikes expose Gulf vulnerabilities Qatar is exploring securing a power cable from Iran as a crucial backup amid regional tensions, reports The Cradle. Talks on connecting the two countries’ power grids began years before the recent US-Israeli war on Iran. Retaliatory Iranian missile strikes on Ras Laffan damaged Qatar’s gas facilities and the power-desalination plant that turns turbine heat into drinking water - lending the project new urgency. 🔴 Qatar’s Kahramaa awarded a $1.7M feasibility study contract to Energoprojekt Entel in June 2025 🔴 Iran’s energy minister said in 2026 that the study was nearing completion 🔴 Qatar and Iran have yet to clarify proposed capacity, financing, electricity trade arrangements & emergency supply commitments Qatar already has strategic water reservoirs and access to the Gulf Cooperation Council’s shared electricity network via the UAE. An Iranian connection could add another source of electricity. Iran already has experience with cross-border power deals: it signed an operating agreement with Turkey for the 400-kV Van–Khoy link in 2024, while Pakistan’s 2023 Polan–Gabd line was designed to deliver an additional 100 MW of Iranian electricity. Any new deal would need clear rules on electricity volumes, prices and emergency transfers - including how much power Iran can guarantee. In 2023, Iran itself faced summer peak electricity demand exceeding available supply by 12 GW. US sanctions could further complicate payments, insurance and equipment supplies. Ultimately, the project could turn a long-discussed energy partnership into a practical regional resilience mechanism, argues the publication. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

📹 Russia, US and Ukraine hold Abu Dhabi talks on broader European security settlement The three nations have begun two days of trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi which will span November 10–11, their first such meeting since February. The US is mediating the talks, which are expected to address not only the Ukraine conflict but also broader European security arrangements. Key details: 🔴 Who is attending: Russia's delegation is led by Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky, Ukraine's by intelligence chief Rustem Umerov, while the US is represented by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Senior diplomats, military and intelligence officials are also participating. 🔴 What's on the agenda: Security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine, territorial disputes, a possible halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, Black Sea shipping, prisoner exchanges and other humanitarian issues. 🔴 Broader security framework: According to Russian media, the negotiations will also address a new continental security system, including mechanisms to reduce military risks and prevent future escalation. 🔴 Europe's involvement: Representatives from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the EU are holding separate consultations in Abu Dhabi. European officials are not participating directly in the trilateral format. 🔴 Expectations: Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia has cautioned against expecting a quick breakthrough. Moscow has also declined to predict the outcome, while Washington is seeking progress on security arrangements and possible compromises. The talks are taking place behind closed doors, with no agreements announced so far. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

⚔️ Gulf states to establish joint military command headquarters in Kuwait Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) defense ministers have agreed to establish a forward headquarters for the bloc’s Unified Military Command in Kuwait, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi has announced. The ministers also agreed to allocate military forces to the headquarters to strengthen defense coordination among Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. The decision comes after months of US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran, during which Gulf states hosting American military facilities faced Iranian strikes and growing threats to energy infrastructure and shipping routes. The conflict has raised concerns among Gulf governments about their dependence on US security guarantees and increased pressure to strengthen their own collective defense capabilities. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

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📲📉 Investors flee tech stocks as fears grow that AI boom is ending - report Global investors are shifting money from technology stocks into defensive sectors amid growing doubts that massive AI investments will generate the expected profits, the Financial Times reports. Global technology stocks have fallen more than 13% since early October, while consumer staples surged 10.6% in October, their strongest monthly gain since 1998. Healthcare stocks gained 9.8% over the same period. Major companies including Walmart, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola have outperformed tech stocks, while Citigroup has downgraded its outlook for the US and global technology sectors to neutral. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🛢 ExxonMobil eyes Venezuela's oil bonanza after nearly two decades away The US energy major has reached a memorandum of understanding with the Venezuelan government and state oil company PDVSA to assess drilling opportunities. ExxonMobil intends to “evaluate potential upstream opportunities,” it said in a brief statement that failed to identify the fields under consideration. Unlike Chevron, which moved quickly in September with a $7 billion, five-year investment plan aimed at doubling its Venezuelan output to around 600,000 barrels per day, Exxon is keeping its cards close to its chest. 👉 The company stressed that a return will hinge on further regulatory reforms, stronger investor protections and guarantees that any investment can deliver competitive returns. Exxon executives previously argued that Venezuela's oil sector remains too risky without reforms to its commercial framework, legal system and hydrocarbons legislation. Nevertheless, they see eye long-term potential in Venezuela's enormous heavy-oil resources, which require specialized technology and expertise to extract profitably. Exxon has positioned itself as one of the players that possess this specialized technology. The preliminary deal lands as the Trump administration has urged US energy companies to pour capital into rebuilding Venezuela’s battered oil industry. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🤥 From Palantir to Trump’s crypto ties: Democrats prepare corporate investigation blitz The Democrats are gearing up to use their newly regained control of Congress to scrutinize some of America’s biggest businesses, including Amazon, Apple, Google, and Palantir, The Wall Street Journal reports. Democratic lawmakers have already identified targets, with companies facing document requests and a Jan. 4 deadline to hand over records as the new Congress begins its work. In the crosshairs: 🔶 Senator Richard Blumenthal has sent letters to major corporations, including Amazon, Apple, BlackRock, Microsoft, Google and Salesforce, seeking information about their contributions to Trump's glitzy White House ballroom project. He has also targeted cryptocurrency firms over their business dealings with the Trump family 🔶 CIA-linked data-mining giant Palantir is facing scrutiny over its massive federal contracts and role in handling sensitive government data, including information held by agencies such as Homeland Security, the IRS and Social Security 🔶 Senate Democrats have identified Toyota, Walmart, Live Nation and major banks as potential beneficiaries of favorable government treatment following donations to Trump's inauguration Many companies saw the political shift coming and have reportedly spent months hiring top law firms, collecting documents, interviewing staff and reviewing potential risks ahead of congressional investigations. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime