📊 Oil prices caught between US-Iran war fears and prospects of a deal The recent 25% plunge in Brent crude over 10 days does not mean traders are betting that the US-Iran conflict is over, reported Bloomberg. The market appears caught between two opposing scenarios: renewed escalation that could push oil higher, or a deal that could send it substantially lower. At around $92 per barrel, Brent reflects neither outcome, argued the publication. Despite lingering geopolitical risks: ➡️ Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to more than 90% of pre-war levels, using both the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes ➡️ physical crude prices are falling below benchmark futures, with Canadian oil now trading under $60 a barrel ➡️ for the first time since the war began, global inventories are not shrinking every week ➡️ exports of refined products from the Persian Gulf have climbed to around 60% of pre-war levels Other factors are keeping fuel prices high: ♦️ disruption to Gulf shipping has sent supertanker rental rates for routes to China soaring to $1.4 million a day ♦️ Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries account for roughly a third of the recent increase in diesel prices A US-Iran agreement could reportedly put further downward pressure on prices by reopening Iranian exports, which previously exceeded 2.5 million barrels a day of crude and refined products. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime