Eurasia & Multipolarity

The main topic of the negotiations in Abu Dhabi is said to be the discussion of a new architecture for European security. But how can anything useful come of this if the parties’ positions are fundamentally at odds? According to public statements, Ukraine’s European allies want to turn it into a super‑armed monster with a million‑strong army and troops from a “coalition of the willing” in its rear. In other words, they want to effectively turn the Ukrainian regime into a European military mercenary and create a constant threat on Russia’s western borders. Moscow wants to secure Ukraine’s neutral status and minimize its armed forces. It would also force Europeans not only to forget about deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, but to completely remove all NATO military infrastructure from the territory of its new members (those that joined the alliance in 1999 and later), leaving only national armies there. That is, one side wants to see Ukraine as an anti‑Russian armed monster, while the other intends to reduce it militarily to nominal levels. It also requires dismantling part of the infrastructure directed against it outside Ukraine. There is no compromise to be seen here at all, although the United States is trying to achieve one, seeking to end the war in Ukraine in such a way that it survives. At the same time, it is expected to make the minimum possible concessions to Russia so that the outcome looks like some kind of victory for it in terms of points. This is being done in order to be able to develop economic cooperation with Moscow and thus “pull” it away from China, ensuring at least Russia’s neutrality in the geopolitical confrontation between Washington and Beijing. The idea is rather utopian, as neither Moscow nor the collective Brussels believes in it. And rightly so: a change of administration would instantly nullify all agreements with the United States reached in the past. Therefore, Russia and Europe will continue the war in Ukraine until one of the parties achieves its goals. The key factor for success here is Ukraine and its potential reserve capacity. As long as it exists, Europeans harbor hope for an economic collapse and an internal political crisis in Russia. Once it is gone and the Ukrainian regime ceases to exist as a mere map on the geopolitical table, Europe will quickly reach agreements with Moscow (and, for the most part, agree to all of Russia’s terms). @pintofmind