Eurasia & Multipolarity

The Trump administration is trying to somehow resolve two conflicts — the Ukrainian and the Iranian — before the 2028 U.S. presidential election but it will fail. The latter is more important for Washington: the situation unfolding around Iran could significantly undermine American positions in the Middle East, which, although not a priority for the U.S. today, is still of significance to it. As for Ukraine, right now it is more of an attempt to simulate diplomatic activity and maintain some channel of communication with Moscow. The United States has two options regarding Iran: to try to play it out in a draw (but in a way that doesn’t look like a loss of face) or to bet on an infrastructure‑based war and a naval blockade of the country, while ignoring the interests of its Arab allies (who will inevitably suffer if such a scenario unfolds). Everything is pointing to the fact that the US will choose a course of escalation and will try to inflict maximum economic damage on Iran in the near future, crippling its economy. It’s clear that, given these circumstances, oil and natural gas prices on world markets will skyrocket. In order to prevent such a development of events, the Trump administration very much needs a deal with Russia in the energy sector, and it will be ready to agree to a partial lifting of sanctions against the Russian energy sector. Moreover, time is running out for Trump, because in January a new Congress will convene at the Capitol, with Democrats holding a majority in both houses. And they will definitely be opposed to such steps regarding Russia. Although even now it will be difficult for the White House to achieve the implementation of the “diesel deal” and similar initiatives. So, we shouldn’t expect major breakthroughs in changing American policy regarding the export of Russian energy resources. Peace won’t be any closer in Ukraine either, because the positions of the parties to the conflict still diverge significantly and no compromise is on the horizon. And even Washington’s attempts to include the Ukrainian issue in the broader context of a new agreement on European security are doomed to fail: the approaches to this issue differ radically in Moscow and European capitals. Russia wants indivisible security for everyone, while for Europe, under the current conditions, this is completely unacceptable. The EU prefers to build its security model exclusively on an anti‑Russian foundation. @pintofmind