AMK Mapping

I understand that Russia remains committed to prolonging the war of attrition at the cost of fewer casualties and even further territorial losses, but time continues to take its toll on troop morale and public support for the war. Losing the Lyman salient has not been particularly costly for Russia, as it ordered a swift withdrawal, and it is highly likely that the Ukrainian advance will be halted at Zherebets; the issue is the impact on the morale of troops who have seen almost a year’s work undone in a matter of weeks, without noticing any substantial change in the dynamics of the war. This is compounded by the lack of reinforcements on certain fronts, the failure to implement countermeasures, and the absence of intensified attacks on the Ukrainian rear. The disaster of 2022 will not be repeated, but neither do the advances of 2024–2025 seem likely to be, unless Moscow decides to take more radical measures to accelerate the deterioration of the Ukrainian armed forces – something that could be carried out now that the Russian parliamentary elections have concluded. Local setbacks are not a cause for concern at present, but their accumulation will eventually take its toll on Russian morale and, consequently, on the conduct of military operations, which could lead to a genuine stalemate on the front by 2027.🇷🇺🇺🇦